Journal issues: 3/2015
30 June, 2015
OPEC IN THE TERMS OF OIL PRICES’ REDUCTION
Economic Institute, FSBEI HPE USPTU, Ufa, the Russian Federation
Economic Institute FSBEI HPE USPTU, Ufa, the Russian Federation
Institute of Social and Economic Research Ufa Scientific Centre of RAS, Ufa, the Russian Federation
The problems and prospects of OPEC member countries’ development in the terms of oil prices’ reduction have been considered in the article, the factors of demand and supply for oil have been analyzed (oil reserves’ reduction in non-OPEC countries with simultaneous increase of the regions’ share which had no great impact on the oil situation in the world before; the competition struggle increase tendency on the oil market, etc.). The problems revealed in the OPEC member countries’ economy development allowed to make a conclusion that the economies of these countries have substantial differences resulting sometimes in the difference of interests and at the same time are characterized by a strong dependence on the oil and gas sector state. The regressive analysis which has been carried out allowed to perform the oil prices’ forecast of OPEC member countries and to realize on this basis the losses’ evaluation of each country because of the oil prices’ change in 2015. It has been stated that the most essential losses (more than 20%) with the tendencies’ preservation in the oil market formed at the end of 2014 are to be expected in the economies of such countries as Angola, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Taking into consideration the role of the OPEC leaders in the formation of the organization policy as a whole in combination with their expected losses, it is claimed that the countries may put up with such losses only for the sake of a very substantial goal that confirms the assumption of the political causes of the oil price reduction in 2014.
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export; factors; forecasting; investments; oil and gas sector; OPEC; price; simulation; social and economic development; инвестиции; моделирование; нефтегазовый сектор; ОПЭК; прогнозирование; социально-экономическое развитие; факторы; цена; экспорт DOI 10.17122/ogbus-2015-3-590-611 References to this article (GOST) Khannanova A.I., Nizamova G.Z., Kantor O.G. OPEC IN THE TERMS OF OIL PRICES’ REDUCTION // Electronic scientific journal "Oil and Gas Business". 2015. №3. P.590-611. URL: http://ogbus.ru/issues/3_2015/ogbus_3_2015_p590-611_KhannanovaAI_ru.pdf