QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION ON DRILLING OPERATIONS. REVIEW AND LESSONS LEARNED
This paper presents comments and some background on the use of risk analysis methods in the oil and gas industry. Particularly attention is given to applications developed specifically for drilling operations. A literature review emphasizing articles written specifically for risk analysis applications on oil & gas well drilling operation is presented.
Recommendations for procedures related to risk analysis methods implementation as well as an example of application and its results are presented.
A Monte Carlo simulation was run to predict a cumulative distribution function for a well drilling AFE (Authorization For Expenditure.) The simulation procedure as well as the resultant cumulative distribution function is presented.
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